India's Q3 GDP Data To Be Out On Tuesday: Here's What Various Estimates Say

Q3 GDP data will be released tomorrow, February 28.

Various estimates expect India’s Q3 FY23 GDP to be in the range of 4.4 per cent-5.1 per cent, which is lower than the 6.3 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 FY23)

India’s latest GDP data for the third quarter of the current fiscal 2022-23 (Q3 FY23) will be released on Tuesday, February 28, by the National Statistical Office (NSO). It will be closely watch as the numbers are the key economic indicator to gauge the country’s growth. Various estimates expect India’s Q3 FY23 GDP to be in the range of 4.4 per cent-5.1 per cent, which is lower than the 6.3 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 FY23).

Rating agency Icra expects India’s GDP to grow 5.1 per cent in Q3FY23, State Bank of India (SBI) sees a 4.6 per cent growth, Barclays India expects the Indian economy to grow 5 per cent, and the RBI sees the country’s GDP growth at 4.4 per cent in the December 2022 quarter.

According to a Reuters‘ poll of economists, India’s economic growth might have slowed further in the December 2022 quarter and is set to lose momentum further amid interest rate hikes that weighed on business activity.

India Ratings in its report has also said, “Although there are a few positives for India such as – sustained government capex, deleveraged corporates, low NPA in the banking sector, production-linked Incentive scheme and likelihood of global commodity prices remaining subdued, Ind-Ra believes they are still not sufficient to take the FY24 GDP growth beyond 6 per cent.”

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Rahul Bajoria, an economist with Barclays India, expects the economy to grow a tad lower at 5 per cent in Q3 FY23. “For FY24, we continue to expect a soft landing as tighter monetary conditions and still-elevated inflation take a toll. We continue to see growth moderating to 6 per cent and forecast steady GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25,” he told PTI.

State Bank of India while pegging the Q3 growth at 4.6 per cent also said as many as 30 high-frequency indicators were not as robust as they were in the previous quarters.

On Tuesday, apart from the GDP data for the December 2022, there will also be revisions in quarterly numbers of FY20, FY21, FY22 and FY23 (Q1 and Q2).

GDP Growth in Q2FY23

In the first advance estimates of the national income for FY23 in early January, the National Statistical Office estimated the Indian economy to grow at 7 per cent in 2022-23, as against 8.7 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector. The output of the manufacturing sector is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent as against a growth of 9.9 per cent in FY22.

In the previous quarter ended September 30, 2022 (Q2 FY23), India’s GDP had grown 6.3 per cent. The RBI had also expected GDP to grow 6.3 per cent during July-September 2022.

During July-September 2022, the country’s gross value added (GVA), which is GDP minus net product taxes and reflects growth in supply, had grown 5.6 per cent, against 8.3 per cent a year ago.

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